NULL Hypothesis
I love Brian Dunning’s Skeptoid podcast. He is also one of the many awesome contributors to the skepticblog. Following is a paragraph from one if his blog postings that I thought was noteworthy.
Interestingly, both ends of the spectrum accuse each other of similar irrationality. True believers accuse skeptics of ignoring evidence. Skeptics accuse true believers of believing anything they hear. If I have to be in one crazy end of the spectrum or another, I’ll happily stay in the “null hypothesis” camp. I’m open to any evidence you want to present, but if it’s ambiguous, explainable by known or natural phenomena, anecdotal or otherwise of poor quality, don’t expect me to adopt your beliefs. Even if you have lots of such evidence, mountains of such evidence: As I often say, you can stack cowpies as high as you want, they won’t turn into a bar of gold. Good evidence is composed of good evidence, not lots of bad evidence.
Good evidence is composed of good evidence, there is no doubt about that. This came up in a discussion I was having with a coworker the other day. He was telling me why he was a ‘believer’.
When he was young, one night he prayed for an angel to help him. He then went to sleep on his waterbed. When he awoke the next morning, he discovered an angel pin in his bed. As if the pin itself wasn’t proof enough, the fact that it didn’t puncture his bed during the night further strengthened his belief that this was a miracle.
In his mind, this “miracle” is evidence that:
- There is a god.
- God listens to prayers.
- God answers prayers.
My interpretation is quite different and has nothing to do with the fact that god is apparently an ass because even I know that my friend wasn’t asking for a pin.
My reaction to this anecdote was simply that it didn’t prove anything and that there were much more likely, mundane explanations for this “miracle” than that god did it. Since I don’t believe that he is outright lying to me, here were some of my possible theories. Memories suck. Some aspects of this memory may be based on fact but others may have been invented by his brain over the years. It’s possible that he found this pin in his bed one morning and was amazed that it didn’t puncture his bed while he was sleeping and thought that god must have protected his bed. It wouldn’t take much for his brain to manufacture the rest of the story over years of telling and retelling. Or perhaps he prayed out loud (he swears that he never did this but I believe it is possible that he did occasionally and just forgot) and his mother overheard his prayer and decided to give god a helping hand. He says that he asked his mother about the pin and she said she knew nothing about it but if she did put it there, of course that is what she would say.
Of course, I’m not saying that either of these is actually what happened, what I am saying is that these are two rational, possible explanations that don’t require any supernatural beings. My final thoughts to him were, do you really think that god heard you pray, went shopping at Wal-Mart to pick up an angel pin and took that to your house and placed it in your bed? And really, give me a break, he was not asking god for a pin when he prayed for an angel to help him! This evidence is not even a huge stack of cowpies, it’s just one cowpie. And that is all the consideration it is worth.