Dec 18 2008

NULL Hypothesis

I love Brian Dunning’s Skeptoid podcast.  He is also one of the many awesome contributors to the skepticblog.  Following is a paragraph from one if his blog postings that I thought was noteworthy.

Interestingly, both ends of the spectrum accuse each other of similar irrationality. True believers accuse skeptics of ignoring evidence. Skeptics accuse true believers of believing anything they hear. If I have to be in one crazy end of the spectrum or another, I’ll happily stay in the “null hypothesis” camp. I’m open to any evidence you want to present, but if it’s ambiguous, explainable by known or natural phenomena, anecdotal or otherwise of poor quality, don’t expect me to adopt your beliefs. Even if you have lots of such evidence, mountains of such evidence: As I often say, you can stack cowpies as high as you want, they won’t turn into a bar of gold. Good evidence is composed of good evidence, not lots of bad evidence.

Good evidence is composed of good evidence, there is no doubt about that.  This came up in a discussion I was having with a coworker the other day.  He was telling me why he was a ‘believer’.

When he was young, one night he prayed for an angel to help him.  He then went to sleep on his waterbed.  When he awoke the next morning, he discovered an angel pin in his bed.  As if the pin itself wasn’t proof enough, the fact that it didn’t puncture his bed during the night further strengthened his belief that this was a miracle.

In his mind, this “miracle” is evidence that:

  1. There is a god.
  2. God listens to prayers.
  3. God answers prayers.

My interpretation is quite different and has nothing to do with the fact that god is apparently an ass because even I know that my friend wasn’t asking for a pin.

My reaction to this anecdote was simply that it didn’t prove anything and that there were much more likely, mundane explanations for this “miracle” than that god did it.  Since I don’t believe that he is outright lying to me, here were some of my possible theories.  Memories suck.  Some aspects of this memory may be based on fact but others may have been invented by his brain over the years.  It’s possible that he found this pin in his bed one morning and was amazed that it didn’t puncture his bed while he was sleeping and thought that god must have protected his bed.  It wouldn’t take much for his brain to manufacture the rest of the story over years of telling and retelling.  Or perhaps he prayed out loud (he swears that he never did this but I believe it is possible that he did occasionally and just forgot) and his mother overheard his prayer and decided to give god a helping hand.  He says that he asked his mother about the pin and she said she knew nothing about it but if she did put it there, of course that is what she would say.

Of course, I’m not saying that either of these is actually what happened, what I am saying is that these are two rational, possible explanations that don’t require any supernatural beings.  My final thoughts to him were, do you really think that god heard you pray, went shopping at Wal-Mart to pick up an angel pin and took that to your house and placed it in your bed?  And really, give me a break, he was not asking god for a pin when he prayed for an angel to help him!  This evidence is not even a huge stack of cowpies, it’s just one cowpie.  And that is all the consideration it is worth.


Dec 16 2008

Arrogant atheist?

This is an attack that I have to defend against often.  I’ll be pleading my case against the claims that some theist is making and suddenly, they say something like:

You think you know everything!

I am not just some arrogant know-it-all.  But that is the way these attacks are designed to make me feel.  I always have to remind myself that this is just an ad hominem attack.  But it is really difficult to make the theist understand that I’m not just being an arrogant know-it-all.  Once this attack has been made, I’ve never gotten the theist who made it to acknowledge that there is a difference between believing something that has a basis in fact and believing something for no reason.  I don’t have a problem with them having belief in something, or that they are certain of their beliefs.  My problem lies in the fact that their beliefs are not based on facts, yet they are still just as certain that their beliefs are true.

The critical difference is where our certainty comes from.  My certainty comes from the facts that were used to draw conclusions that are testable and true.  Their certainty comes from… their minds, aka faith.


Dec 16 2008

Are You a Hardcore Atheist?

I got this list at friendlyatheist.com.

Copy and paste the list below on your own site, boldfacing the things you’ve done. (Feel free to add your own elaboration and commentary to each item!)

  1. Participated in the Blasphemy Challenge. (Sort of, I just haven’t video taped it and put it on youtube.)
  2. Met at least one of the “Four Horsemen” (Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, Christopher Hitchens, Sam Harris) in person.
  3. Created an atheist blog.
  4. Used the Flying Spaghetti Monster in a religious debate with someone.
  5. Gotten offended when someone called you an agnostic.
  6. Been unable to watch Growing Pains reruns because of Kirk Cameron.
  7. Own more Bibles than most Christians you know.
  8. Have at least one Bible with your personal annotations regarding contradictions, disturbing parts, etc.
  9. Have come out as an atheist to your family.
  10. Attended a campus or off-campus atheist gathering. (Wish we had something like this around here.)
  11. Are a member of an organized atheist/Humanist/etc. organization. (Not yet, but I’m looking for a good one to join.)
  12. Had a Humanist wedding ceremony.
  13. Donated money to an atheist organization. (I haven’t yet, but I plan to.)
  14. Have a bookshelf dedicated solely to Richard Dawkins.
  15. Lost the friendship of someone you know because of your non-theism.
  16. Tried to argue or have a discussion with someone who stopped you on the street to proselytize.
  17. Hid your atheist beliefs on a first date because you didn’t want to scare him/her away.
  18. Own a stockpile of atheist paraphernalia (bumper stickers, buttons, shirts, etc). (I’ve got a free thought license tag on my truck.)
  19. Attended a protest that involved religion.
  20. Attended an atheist conference. (I would love to go to the Amazing Meeting.)
  21. Subscribe to Pat Condell’s YouTube channel.
  22. Started an atheist group in your area or school.
  23. Successfully “de-converted” someone to atheism.
  24. Have already made plans to donate your body to science after you die.
  25. Told someone you’re an atheist only because you wanted to see the person’s reaction.
  26. Had to think twice before screaming “Oh God!” during sex. Or you said something else in its place.
  27. Lost a job because of your atheism.
  28. Formed a bond with someone specifically because of your mutual atheism (meeting this person at a local gathering or conference doesn’t count).
  29. Have crossed “In God We Trust” off of — or put a pro-church-state-separation stamp on — dollar bills.
  30. Refused to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
  31. Said “Gesundheit!” (or nothing at all) after someone sneezed because you didn’t want to say “Bless you!”
  32. Have ever chosen not to clasp your hands together out of fear someone might think you’re praying.
  33. Have turned on Christian TV because you need something entertaining to watch.
  34. Are a 2nd or 3rd (or more) generation atheist.
  35. Have “atheism” listed on your Facebook or dating profile — and not a euphemistic variant.
  36. Attended an atheist’s funeral (i.e. a non-religious service).
  37. Subscribe to an freethought magazine (e.g. Free Inquiry, Skeptic) (I plan to get a subscription to one but haven’t decided which one yet.)
  38. Have been interviewed by a reporter because of your atheism.
  39. Written a letter-to-the-editor about an issue related to your non-belief in God.
  40. Gave a friend or acquaintance a New Atheist book as a gift.
  41. Wear pro-atheist clothing in public.
  42. Have invited Mormons/Jehovah’s Witnesses into your house specifically because you wanted to argue with them.
  43. Have been physically threatened (or beaten up) because you didn’t believe in God.
  44. Receive Google Alerts on “atheism” (or variants).
  45. Received fewer Christmas presents than expected because people assumed you didn’t celebrate it.
  46. Visited The Creation Museum or saw Ben Stein’s Expelled just so you could keep tabs on the “enemy.”
  47. Refuse to tell anyone what your “sign” is… because it doesn’t matter at all.
  48. Are on a mailing list for a Christian organization just so you can see what they’re up to…
  49. Have kept your eyes open while you watched others around you pray.
  50. Avoid even Unitarian churches because they’re too close to religion for you.

If you’ve done more than 35 of those things, I’d say PZ Myers will soon be taking lessons from you.

13 out of 50… I guess I’m an amature atheist.


Dec 16 2008

Condensed History: The Birth of Jesus

This was so funny, I couldn’t stop laughing.  It’s a condensed version of the birth of Jesus story written in Internet-chat style.

Favorite line:
TEH ANGLE OF TEH LORD: Wait.. what? But… but… He’s his own Dad. IT IS WRITTEN and it is COMPLICATED FFS


Dec 8 2008

Be good for goodness sake

I love it when followers of a stupid fucking immoral religion, like Christianity, try to tell me how necessary it is for good morals!  News flash folks; your religion, which ever one it is, is not the best source of values.  We decide that as a society and they are refined and changed all the time.  That is why many of the stories in the bible are so immoral by today’s standards.  Killing unruly children, slavery, slaughter of whole villages… the list goes on and on.

Sometimes it makes me want to scream!  I just got in a discussion with a theist who stated that (I’m paraphrasing) if we take God out of the government, specifically, remove “In God We Trust” from the money and take the God reference out of the pledge, it would be detrimental to our morals as a society.  When I offered evidence, to the contrary, he simply rejected it as if it was some kind of propaganda or something.  His exact words were, “That’s what you believe, because  it supports your side.”  NO!  I’m on that side because that’s the side supported by evidence, for fuck’s sake!  Unbelievable, reality really sucks when you live in fantasy land I guess.


Dec 5 2008

Why did Voyager writers hate science?

I didn’t watch Star Trek Voyager when it was on TV, however, I’ve been watching it on DVD thanks to NetFlix.  Or perhaps, I shouldn’t be thanking them.  So far I have not seen a good episode and I’m up to Season 3.  I vaguely remember DS9 having a lot of religious overtones to it but I don’t recall any overt anti-science episodes.  Voyager seems to be rife with them.

I was watching Sacred Ground (Episode 49, Season 3).  This is the most anti-science hogwash, I’ve seen in a long time.  In the show, Kes is injured and is dying due to some energy discharge from a shrine on some planet.  The locals tell Janeway that there is nothing she can do, Kes will die.  However, Janeway finds out about a story where someone went though a ritual to save their son who was afflicted with the same condition so she ask if she can do it.  They give her permission and she goes through the ritual that the local monks go through which is supposed to protect her from the energy discharge.

The ritual is long and pointless, even the other monks say so.  But the captain thinks she has the knowledge that she needs to heal Kes, however when they try, Kes gets worse so Janeway goes back down to see the monks again.  She talks to these three old monks sitting in a room and here are some of the mind-numbingly asinine comments that they make during their exchange.

Prophet 2: If you can explain everything, what’s left to believe in?

Well, lets see, if I can explain everything, I can believe in… EVERYTHING!

Prophet 1: “But of course you will, you’ll find all the answers eventually.  With enough time and study and the right sort of tools.  That’s what you believe, isn’t it, as a scientist?”

Prophet 3: “Be honest.”

Janeway: “Yes, that’s what I’ve always believed.”

Prophet 2: “Even when her science fails right before her eyes, she still has full confidence in it.  Now there’s a leap of faith.”

Prophet 1: “Unconditional trust, that’s promising.”

First of all, that “Be honest.” comment from Prophet 3 pissed me off to no end.  Why wouldn’t she be honest?  Is that question supposed to reveal something deep and difficult to answer.  It’s a simple question with a simple answer, Yes.

They were claiming that she was making a “leap of faith” because she believed that she could find an answer using science and they are encouraging her to use faith instead.  WHAT?  I want to smack these people.  They go on to tell Janeway that in order to cure Kes, she must kill her by exposing her to the “biogenic field” that originally caused the problem.  Janeway ask them, presuming that they know what the fuck they are talking about, “It would do what exactly?”  To which they reply “There you go again, always looking for a rational explanation.  Well there isn’t one.”  So, because the prophets are too ignorant to know why this will work, means that there is no reason.  I don’t think Janeway is the one making a leap of faith here.  This is the arrogance of religious believers.  In their minds, ignorance is an answer to their questions.

Janeway does as they ask, against the advice of everyone on Voyager and it cures Kes.  Then the doctor theorizes why, Janeway was able to enter the biogenic field safely and why the second exposure cures Kes, thus proving the prophets wrong by giving the non-existent rational explanation.  But Janeway still looks shaken by the experience, like she is doubting her “faith” in science.

I’m normally annoyed by skeptics in fiction because in the fictional story, magic, etc. are real.  But the skeptic applies “real world” methodologies and invariably end up wrong because they aren’t in the real world.  But Star Trek usually tries to stay within the realm of reason.  Even beings with magic like powers are explained as just being more advanced.  The Q for instance, aren’t magic they just seem that way to us because we don’t know everything yet.  But this episode has the skeptic in her element and still beginning to doubt her beliefs.  Why?

This wasn’t the first Voyager episode that annoyed me with anti-science messages but it was the last straw.  I knew I was going to have to blog about it as soon as I saw her conversation with those three Prophets.